A Mess on theLadder of Success A) Throughout Americanhistory there has almost always been
A Mess on theLadder of Success
A) Throughout Americanhistory there has almost always been at least one central economic narrativethatgave the ambitious or unsatisfied reason to pack up and seek their fortuneelsewhere. For the first 300or so years of European settlement, the story wasabout moving outward: getting immigrants to thecontinent and then to thefrontier to clear the prairies (大草原), drain thewetlands and build new cities.
B) By the end of the 19thcentury, as the frontier vanished, the US had a mild panic attack. What wouldthisenergetic, enterprising country be without new lands to conquer？ Some people,such as Teddy Roosevelt, decided to keep on conquering (Cuba, the Philippines,etc.), but eventually, in industrialization, the US found a new narrative ofeconomic mobility at home. From the 1890s to the
1960s,people moved from farm to city, first in the North and then in the South. Infact, by the 1950s,there was enough prosperity and white-collar work that manybegan to move to the suburbs. As the population aged, there was also a shift from the cold Rust Belt to the comforts of the Sun Belt, Wethink of this as anold persons migration, but it created many jobs for the young in coustructionand health care, not to mention tourism, retail and restaurants.
C) For the last 20 years-from the end of the coldwar through two burst bubbles in a single decade--theUS has been casting aboutfor its next economic narrative. And now it is experienc.ing another periodofpanic, which is bad news for much of the workforce but particularly for itsyoungest members.
D) The US has always been a remarkably mobilecountry, but new data from the Census Bureau indicatethat mobility has reachedits lowest level in recorded history. Sure, some people are stuck in homesvaluedat less than their mortgages (抵押贷款), but many youngpeople,-who dont own homes anddont yet have famihes--are staying put, too.This suggests, among other things, that people arentpacking up for neweconomic opportmtities the way they used to. Rather than dividing the countryintothe 1 percenters versus (与……相对) everyone else, the split in our economy is really between twootherclasses: the mobile and immobile.
E) Part of the problem is that the countryslargest industries are in decline. In the past, it was perfectlyclear whereyoung people should go for work (Chicago in the 1870s, Detroit in the 1910s,Houston inthe 1970s) and, more or less, what theyd be doing when they gotthere (killing cattle, building cars,~selling oil). And these industries werelarge enough to offer jobs to each class of worker, fromunskilled laborer tomanager or engineer. Today, the few bright spots in our economy are relativelysmall (though some promise future growth) and decentralized. There are greatjobs in Silicon Valley, in the biotech research capitals of Boston andRaleigh-Durham and in advanced manufacturing plantsalong the southern 1-85corridor. These companies recruit all over the country and the globe forworkerswith specific abilities.(You dont need to be the next Mark Zuckerberg, founderofFacebook, to get a job in one of the microhubs (微中心), by the way. But youwill almost certainlyneed at least a B, A. in computer science or a year or twoat a technical school.) This newer, select job market is national, and itoffers members of the mobile class competitive salaries and higherbargainingpower.
F) Many members of the immobile class, on theother hand, live in the America of the gloomy headlines.If you have nospecialized skills, theres little reason to uproot to another state and be thelast in linefor a low-paying job at a new auto plant or a green-energy startup.The surprise in the census (普查)data, however, is that the immobile workforce is not limited tounskilled workers. In fact, many have a college degree.
G) Until now, a B.A. in any subject was a near-guarantee of at least middle-class wages.But today, aquarter of college graduates make less than the typical workerwithout a bachelors degree. David Autor, a prominent labor economist at M. I.T., recently told me that a college degree alone is nolonger a guarantor of agood job. While graduates from top universities are still likely to get a goodjobno matter what their major is, he said, graduates from less-famous schoolsare going to be judged onwhat they know. To compete for jobs on a nationallevel, they should be armed with the skills thatemerging industries need,whether technical or not.
H) Thosewithout such specialized skills--like poetry, or even history, majors--arealready competing with their neighbors for the same sorts of second-rate,poorer-paying local jobs like low-levelmanagement or big-box retail sales. Andwith the low-skilled labor market atomized into thousands ofmicroeconomies,immobile workers are less able to demand better wages or conditious or toacquire valuable skills.
I) Sowhat, exactly, should the ambitious young worker of today be learning？Unfortunately, its hard tosay, since the US doesnt have one clear nationalproject. There are plenty of emerging, smaller industries, but which ones arethe most promising？ (Nanotechnologys (纳米技术) moment of remarkable growth seems to havebeen 5 years into the future for something like 20 years now.) Itsnot clearexactly what skills are most needed or if they will even be valuable in adecade.
J) Whatis clear is that all sorts of government issueseducation, health-insuranceportability, worker retraining--are no longer just bonuses to alreadyprosperous lives but existential requirements. Its inall of our interests tomake sure that as many people as possible are able to move toward opportunity,and, Americas ability to invest people and money in exciting new ideas isstill greater than that of most other wealthy countries. (As recently as fiveyears ago, US migration was twice the rate of EuropeanUnion states.) That, atleast, is some comfort at a time when our national economy seems to besearchingfor its next story line.
Unlike in the past, a college degree alone does not guarantee a good job for its holder.
The census data is surprising in that college graduates are also among the immobile workforce.
New figures released by the government show that Americans today are less mobile than ever before.
The migration of old people from cold to warm places made many jobs available to the young.
America is better at innovation than most other rich nations.
Early American history is one of moving outward.
Young people dont know what to learn because it is hard to predict what skills are most needed orvalued ten years from now.
Computer or other technical skills are needed to get a well-paying job in high-tech, or advancedmanufacturing.
When the frontier vanished about a century ago, America found new economic mobility inindustrialization.
America today can be divided into two classes., those who move and those who dont.
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